@article{liuEvaluatingRoleMentalinpress,

title = {Evaluating the Role of Mental Sampling in Probability Judgments: Illogical Rankings Occur in a Predictable Manner},

author = {Xiaotong Liu and Arndt Bröder and Henrik Singmann},

url = {https://osf.io/bfwpe_v3/download/, preprint},

doi = {10.31234/osf.io/bfwpe_v3},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-15},

journal = {Cognition},

abstract = {People’s probability judgments often appear to be probabilistically incoherent, as exemplified by the conjunction fallacy. Recently, various sampling-based models have been proposed as an integrative account for different biases and fallacies in probability judgments. In the current study, the novel Event Ranking Task was used to investigate sampling-based models of probability judgments. On each trial of the Event Ranking Task, participants were asked to provide a ranking for an event set consisting of four events, A, not-A, B, and not-B, in terms of their perceived likelihoods. Qualitative predictions were formally derived by assuming direct sampling from a fixed underlying probability distribution. Adding read-out noise in the sampling process – as suggested in the Probability Theory plus Noise model (Costello & Watts, 2014) – did not change the qualitative predictions. Two online experiments, where participants ranked twelve different event sets, yielded results in line with the qualitative predictions, providing evidence for the idea that mental sampling underlies probability judgments.},

keywords = {mental sampling, Probabilistic reasoning, rationality},

pubstate = {forthcoming},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Markovits2018,

title = {Multiple Layers of Information Processing in Deductive Reasoning: Combining Dual Strategy and Dual-Source Approaches to Reasoning},

author = {Henry Markovits and Janie Brisson and Pier-Luc de Chantal and Henrik Singmann},

url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Markovits-et-al.-2018-Multiple-layers-of-information-processing-in-deduc.pdf, published manuscript},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-06-30},

journal = {Journal of Cognitive Psychology},

volume = {30},

number = {4},

pages = {394-405},

keywords = {Conditional reasoning, Probabilistic reasoning, Reasoning},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Singmann2016,

title = {Probabilistic Conditional Reasoning: Disentangling Form and Content with the Dual-Source Model},

author = {Henrik Singmann and Karl Christoph Klauer and Sieghard Beller},

url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Singmann-et-al.-2016-Probabilistic-conditional-reasoning-Disentangling.pdf, published Version

https://osf.io/zcdfq/, OSF link (includes supplemental materials, all data, and scripts)

http://singmann.org/download/publications/submitted/2016_singmann_klauer_beller_nice.pdf, nice version of accepted manuscript},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-10-01},

journal = {Cognitive Psychology},

volume = {88},

pages = {61-87},

keywords = {Conditional reasoning, Dual Process Models, measurement models, mixed models, new paradigm psychology of reasoning, Probabilistic reasoning},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Olsen3999,

title = {The Relevance Effect and Conditionals},

author = {Niels Skovgaard-Olsen and Henrik Singmann and Karl Christoph Klauer},

url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Skovgaard-Olsen-et-al.-2016-The-relevance-effect-and-conditionals.pdf, published paper

http://singmann.org/download/publications/supplemental/The-Relevance-Effect-and-Conditionals_supplemental.pdf, supplemental materials

https://osf.io/j4swp/, data and analysis scripts (OSF)},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-03-01},

journal = {Cognition},

volume = {150},

pages = {26-36},

keywords = {Conditional reasoning, mixed models, new paradigm psychology of reasoning, Probabilistic reasoning, Reasoning},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{singmann_new_2014,

title = {New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model},

author = {Henrik Singmann and Karl Christoph Klauer and David E. Over },

url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Singmann-Klauer-Over_2014.pdf, published article

http://singmann.org/download/publications/data-scripts/2014_singmann_klauer_over.zip, data and analysis scripts},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Psychology},

volume = {5},

pages = {316},

note = {winner of best student paper award of DFG priority programm "New frameworks of rationality"},

keywords = {coherence, Conditional reasoning, dual-source model, mathematical modeling, measurement models, mixed models, new paradigm psychology of reasoning, p-validity, Probabilistic reasoning, rationality, Reasoning},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{singmann_deductive_2011,

title = {Deductive and inductive conditional inferences: Two modes of reasoning},

author = {Singmann, Henrik and Klauer, Karl Christoph},

url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Singmann%20&%20Klauer%20(2011).pdf, published article

http://singmann.org/download/publications/data-scripts/2011_singmann_klauer.zip, data and analysis script},

issn = {1354-6783},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Thinking & Reasoning},

volume = {17},

number = {3},

pages = {247--281},

keywords = {Conditional reasoning, Deductive reasoning, Dual Process Models, new paradigm psychology of reasoning, Probabilistic reasoning, Reasoning, state-trace analysis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}