Note: Publications “in press” are displayed as published in year 3999.
2025
Maier, Maximilian; Harris, Adam J. L.; Kellen, David; Singmann, Henrik
Decision Making under Extinction Risk Journal Article
In: vol. 159, pp. 101735, 2025, ISSN: 0010-0285.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Computational modelling, Decision Making, Extinction, Extreme outcomes, Mixture modelling, Risky choice
@article{maierDecisionMakingExtinction2025a,
title = {Decision Making under Extinction Risk},
author = {Maximilian Maier and Adam J. L. Harris and David Kellen and Henrik Singmann},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010028525000234},
doi = {10.1016/j.cogpsych.2025.101735},
issn = {0010-0285},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
urldate = {2025-06-24},
volume = {159},
pages = {101735},
abstract = {In everyday life, people routinely make decisions that involve irredeemable risks such as death (e.g., while driving). Even though these decisions under extinction risk are common, practically important, and have different properties compared to the types of decisions typically studied by decision scientists, they have received little research attention. The present work advances the formal understanding of decision making under extinction risk by introducing a novel experimental paradigm, the Extinction Gambling Task (EGT). We derive optimal strategies for three different types of extinction and near-extinction events, and compare them to participants’ choices in three experiments. Leveraging computational modelling to describe strategies at the individual level, we document strengths and shortcomings in participants’ decisions under extinction risk. Specifically, we find that, while participants are relatively good in terms of the qualitative strategies they employ, their decisions are nevertheless affected by loss chasing, scope insensitivity, and opportunity cost neglect. We hope that by formalising decisions under extinction risk and providing a task to study them, this work will facilitate future research on an important topic that has been largely ignored.},
keywords = {Computational modelling, Decision Making, Extinction, Extreme outcomes, Mixture modelling, Risky choice},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2024
Niu, Xiaoxiao; Singmann, Henrik; Wyatt, Faye; Putra, Agie W.; Taat, Azlai; Panti, Jehan S.; Hoang, Lam; Moron, Lorenzo A.; Osman, Sazali; Novikarany, Riefda; Tran, Diep Quang; Beckett, Rebecca; Harris, Adam JL.
Judgment and Decision Strategies Used by Weather Scientists in Southeast Asia to Classify Impact Severity Journal Article
In: vol. 113, pp. 104799, 2024, ISSN: 2212-4209.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: applied, Decision Making
@article{niuJudgmentDecisionStrategies2024,
title = {Judgment and Decision Strategies Used by Weather Scientists in Southeast Asia to Classify Impact Severity},
author = {Xiaoxiao Niu and Henrik Singmann and Faye Wyatt and Agie W. Putra and Azlai Taat and Jehan S. Panti and Lam Hoang and Lorenzo A. Moron and Sazali Osman and Riefda Novikarany and Diep Quang Tran and Rebecca Beckett and Adam JL. Harris},
url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Niu-et-al-2024.pdf, Publisher PDF},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799},
issn = {2212-4209},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-10-15},
urldate = {2024-10-15},
volume = {113},
pages = {104799},
keywords = {applied, Decision Making},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Maier, Maximilian; Harris, Adam; Kellen, David; Singmann, Henrik
Introducing the Extinction Gambling Task Proceedings Article
In: Samuelson, Larissa K; Frank, Stefan; Toneva, Mariya; Mackey, Allyson P.; Hazeltine, Eliot (Ed.): Proceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, OSF, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Decision Making, optimality, risky-choice
@inproceedings{maierIntroducingExtinctionGambling2024,
title = {Introducing the Extinction Gambling Task},
author = {Maximilian Maier and Adam Harris and David Kellen and Henrik Singmann},
editor = {Larissa K Samuelson and Stefan Frank and Mariya Toneva and Allyson P. Mackey and Eliot Hazeltine},
url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Maier%20et%20al.%20-%202024%20-%20Introducing%20the%20Extinction%20Gambling%20Task.pdf, final PDF
https://osf.io/g3s7u, OSF link
},
doi = {10.31234/osf.io/g3s7u},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-07-24},
urldate = {2025-01-30},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society},
publisher = {OSF},
abstract = {Decisions about extinction risks are ubiquitous in everyday life and for our continued existence as a species. We introduce a new risky-choice task that can be used to study this topic: The Extinction Gambling Task. Here, we investigate two versions of this task: a Keep variant, where participants cannot accumulate any more earnings after the extinction event, and a Lose variant, where extinction also wipes out all previous earnings. We derive optimal solutions for both variants and compare them to behavioural data. Our findings suggest that people understand the difference between the two variants and their behaviour is qualitatively in line with the optimal solution. Further, we find evidence for risk-aversion in the Keep condition but not in the Lose condition. We hope that this task can facilitate further research on this vital topic.},
keywords = {Decision Making, optimality, risky-choice},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Singmann, Henrik; Xiong, Yunxi; Song, Yue; Breen, Mia; Baumann, Christiane
Full-Information Optimal-Stopping Problems: Providing People with the Optimal Policy Does Not Improve Performance Proceedings Article
In: Samuelson, Larissa K; Frank, Stefan; Toneva, Mariya; Mackey, Allyson P.; Hazeltine, Eliot (Ed.): Proceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 2024.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Decision Making, optimal stopping, optimality
@inproceedings{singmannFullinformationOptimalstoppingProblems2024,
title = {Full-Information Optimal-Stopping Problems: Providing People with the Optimal Policy Does Not Improve Performance},
author = {Henrik Singmann and Yunxi Xiong and Yue Song and Mia Breen and Christiane Baumann},
editor = {Larissa K Samuelson and Stefan Frank and Mariya Toneva and Allyson P. Mackey and Eliot Hazeltine},
url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Singmann%20et%20al.%20-%202024%20-%20Full-information%20optimal-stopping%20problems%20Provid.pdf, final PDF},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-07-24},
urldate = {2025-01-31},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society},
keywords = {Decision Making, optimal stopping, optimality},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
2020
Baumann, Chrisitiane; Singmann, Henrik; Gershman, Samuel; von Helversen, Bettina
A Linear Threshold Model for Optimal Stopping Behavior Journal Article
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, no. 23, pp. 12750-12755, 2020.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Decision Making, hierarchical-Bayesian modeling, mathematical modeling, measurement models
@article{Baumann2021,
title = {A Linear Threshold Model for Optimal Stopping Behavior},
author = {Chrisitiane Baumann and Henrik Singmann and Samuel Gershman and Bettina von Helversen},
url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Baumann_Optimal_Stopping_PNAS_preprint.pdf, preprint},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-06-09},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {117},
number = {23},
pages = {12750-12755},
keywords = {Decision Making, hierarchical-Bayesian modeling, mathematical modeling, measurement models},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2018
Baumann, Christiane; Singmann, Henrik; Kaxiras, Vassilios E; Gershman, Samuel; von Helversen, Bettina
Explaining Human Decision Making in Optimal Stopping Tasks Proceedings Article
In: Rogers, Tim; Rau, Marina; Zhu, Jerry; Kalish, Chuck (Ed.): Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pp. 1343–1348, Austin TX: Cognitive Science Society, 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Decision Making, mathematical modeling, optimal stopping
@inproceedings{baumann_explaining_2018,
title = {Explaining Human Decision Making in Optimal Stopping Tasks},
author = {Christiane Baumann and Henrik Singmann and Vassilios E Kaxiras and Samuel Gershman and Bettina von Helversen},
editor = {Tim Rogers and Marina Rau and Jerry Zhu and Chuck Kalish},
url = {http://singmann.org/download/publications/Baumann-et-al.-2018-Explaining-Human-Decision-Making-in-Optimal-Stoppi.pdf, published version},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-07-26},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society},
pages = {1343--1348},
publisher = {Austin TX: Cognitive Science Society},
keywords = {Decision Making, mathematical modeling, optimal stopping},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}